Here it is. This is my final election night predictions for Tuesday.
I think that we’re going to see a real shocker. Yes, I really predict that New Jersey will go Republican. They voted for Chris Christie and they haven’t seen the state implode, so I think they will go Romney.
I also stand by all my previous predictions. Senate goes Republican, House gets more Republican, and North Carolina goes completely Republican.
Mark my words, this “Cyberbullying” law will be used to attack parents and activists who oppose the state run education monopoly. Anyone who commits the thought crime of criticising how their child’s school is run will at least be threatened with a second degree misdemeanor, so many of them will just shut up. We all know teachers. They aren’t interested in truth, they just want the children to sit down, shut up, and complete their assigned workbook pages.
Here’s the problem. Romney isn’t a great candidate. Honestly, I’m pretty sure that anyone who would be arrogant enough to run for President wouldn’t be a good candidate for President. You see the dilemma.
I’ve heard lots of people complain that the choice between Obama and Romney is just a choice of which form our Gozer will take. Fair enough. But maybe we should take a close look at our premise and see if it is valid.
Why would we care if a candidate is perfect or not? I believe the answer is because everyone wants a President who will rule over us wisely and would use his good judgement to rule as we would if we had the same information as he has. If that’s what we wanted, then only perfect candidates would be acceptable.
Here’s the problem. We aren’t electing a Philosopher King. We are electing a chief of the Executive Branch of our government. If we had a Philosopher King, we could go back to being lazy and ignoring politics while the King benevolently ruled over us. I don’t know about you, but my ancestors didn’t come to this country to be ruled over. Where’s my master? That son of a bitch ain’t been born.
We keep searching for the perfect candidate who will do everything for us so that we can forget the hard work of ruling over ourselves. That’s just laziness. That’s how we got to where we are. No one seized unconstitutional power, we gave it to them. We voted it that way. And why did we do it? Because we were lazy and didn’t want to be bothered. We didn’t want to get our fat asses off the couch and make it happen, we wanted to sit in front of the boob tube and watch it happen.
Every time I hear some hard-core Libertarian I want to strangle him. Libertarians seem to have two problems. One is that they don’t seem to have any idea how to convey their beliefs without basically telling people that they are both wrong AND stupid. I can’t find it, but there is a hilarious video about how Libertarians can’t sell their ideas to regular people because Libertarians would rather rant at people that make the case for them. The second problem with Libertarians is that they make the perfect the enemy of the good. They can’t accept “good enough.” If it ain’t perfect, it’s worse than Barack Obama. Politics is the art of compromise, and as far as I can tell, the stronger Libertarian they are, the less flexible they are to compromise.
This means that Libertarians are unable to infiltrate and convert the Republican Party, which is the only possible route to power for them. No one with even an ounce of sense believes that the Libertarian Party will replace the Republican Party. And that whole “Liberaltarian” garbage was just a way to confuse those Libertarians who had hit the bong so many times that they had lost touch with reality. So rather than win slowly, the Libertarians would prefer to lose quickly. It’s a shame, because for the most part the Libertarians are right. The government shouldn’t spend what it doesn’t have, should respect people’s rights and their property, and should basically stay the hell out of their lives to the maximum extent possible.
Why won’t Libertarians infiltrate, take over, and change the Republican Party? Laziness. They don’t want to take the time to make the changes. They don’t want to pressure their Representative and Senators. They don’t want to bug the crap out of their State Rep and Senator. They don’t want to make sure that the Governor knows their name. That’s actual work. Sitting on the couch bitching about how it’s just a different face on the same Gozer is easy.
Everyone needs to get it through their thick skulls that “throw the bums out” isn’t the solution. The next set of bums will do the same thing. They will do what is profitable, and changing the bums doesn’t change what is profitable. We can’t find only good people to represent us. We are mostly going to elect power-hungry jackasses. It’s hard not to elect them when they are basically the only people who would run for office. The solution isn’t to change the people, it is to change what is profitable.
Milton Friedman said it best.
When you make it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing, they’ll do it. It’s just that making the right thing politically profitable is hard work.
So what are you going to do? Are you going to do the hard work? Or are you going back to your couch secure in the knowlege that the Gozer is just going to destroy you anyway?
I voted early today. Here’s a tip. If you run the Wake County Board of Elections, don’t put your office right in the middle of Raleigh. There is no parking. Try putting your office in a strip mall with a giant parking lot. Sure, most of the time it will be empty, but during elections the people will have some place to park.
Now that my voting is done, I’m going to make a few predictions.
Romney wins by over 100 Electoral College votes
Republicans take the US Senate, convincingly
Republicans increase their lead in the US House
McCrory will thump Dalton to win the Governorship of North Carolina. 10 point win for McCrory.
Republicans will increase their lead in BOTH NC House and NC Senate
Now for my reasoning
Romney was always ahead. The polls were biased. (seriously, RTWT) Looking at the current RCP Electoral College map, Romney is showing 206 to 201 for Obama with 131 votes up for grabs. North Carolina just moved into the “Leans Romney” camp. Duh. He barely won here in 2008. He’s going to get crushed here this year. I say Romney will win Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio. He’ll probably also win Michigan, and Iowa. I think there will be a lot of shocked Dems come the day after the election.
The US Senate looks tougher, but I think that the people saying that Fauxcahantes is going to beat Brown are dreaming. I think that while Romney won’t have coattails, Obama has his anchor chain wrapped around the neck of his party. He’s going to take them down with him. I’m going to go with 52-48 Republican in the Senate. I’m hoping for better.
What everyone is trying to ignore is that in 2010 the biggest Statehouse bloodbath in history took place. The very year that redistricting took place the Dems got slaughtered in Statehouses all over the country. Gerrymandering was reversed and now it’s not going to be possible for the Dems to help themselves. Plus Obama is going to drag them down even worse than they were going to lose on their own.
This is a no-brainer. McCrory is going to wipe the floor with Dalton. Every poll shows him up in double digits.
The same thing here as in #3. The Republicans took control of redistricting and did to the Dems what the Dems have done to the Republicans for 100 years. Payback’s a bitch. The Republicans didn’t play nice, and who could blame them?
There you have it. Now we have to wait until November 5th to see if I’m correct.
I’ve pointed this out before. You are being lied to. The latest lie in “Election Coverage 2012™” is the “Romney Surge.” Romney isn’t surging at all. In order for Romney to “Surge Ahead!” he’d have to start out behind. And that’s not what is happening.
Andy, when you’re writing, it’s not necessary to write “I repeat.” If they’ve missed what you wrote they can just read it again.
They say that “Figures don’t lie, liars figure.” It’s as true today as it ever was. The polls have consistently shown Obama close or ahead in the race. They’ve also shown a significant party identification advantage for the Democrats. The latest poll shows that party ID reduced, eliminated, and even reversed a bit.
So why is this happening? That’s actually a two-part question, which has a two-part answer.
Why is the news media showing Obama up and then down?
Why are the journalists showing Obama up and then down?
The news media, the corporations, need you to show up and watch their program. If you don’t watch, their audience share goes down, and therefore their ad revenues go down. If they told you the truth from the beginning that Obama is on the wrong side of the Little League slaughter rule, you’d go watch something else. So they lied to you to keep your attention. There is a risk. They can’t allow this lie to go all the way up to the election. If they’re calling it close all the way up until the election, you are going to lose even more respect for them when their vaunted polls turn out to be about as reflective of reality as Obama’s campaign promises. They need a “Romney Surge” to reconcile their lies about Obama being ahead with the reality that Obama is has about as much chance as the Titanic. They have to manufacture a realignment to cover their earlier lies.
The journalists, however, have to go along with this. Why would the do that? Well, wouldn’t you? What are journalists, anyway? Do they have some arcane knowledge? Secret insider info? Good looks and charm? None of these. Jennifer says that actors are nothing but monkeys who dance for our entertainment. Journalists are no different. They exist solely to entertain us. They entertain us by bringing us information, tying it up into a neat bow, and using it to tell us a story. No one, no matter how un self-aware can forget that the bottom line is to get viewers or readers. The journalists like to pretend that they are brave tellers of truth, but in the end, they are just dancing monkeys. The one time they can really be involved in something big is during election coverage. The rest of the time they cover sappy human interest stories or the local crimes, but during election coverage they get to pretend to be the voice of the people. They pretend that they are bravely demanding answers from politicians, and bringing us vital information that we will use to determine the course of an entire nation, even the world! What happens to those brave truth tellers when they don’t have a race, but a blowout? When the outcome is well known in advance and the audience has left for more interesting stories? They either pretend not to notice the obvious, or they lie to hide it.
We will probably hear of a few more ups and downs in the last few weeks before the election. They all want to keep it interesting. But it’s over. It’s been over for months. Romney isn’t surging, the media is simply realigning their polls to reflect reality.
My prediction. Romney wins in a walk. The Senate flips. The House, due to significant redistricting by Republican run State Legislatures, gets even more Republican.
Let’s look at “Party Affiliation,” which is the last set of columns in the Presidential section. WRAL surveyed 571 likely voters and found that 33% were Republicans, 45% were Democrats, and 22% were Independent. If we compare that to the voting for 2008, the exit polls showed 31% Republican, 42% Dem, and 27% Independent. Since 2008 was a historically high year for the Dems, where does WRAL get off showing results for 2012 with an even higher Democrat advantage in party ID?
Why is the media consistently over sampling Democrats in their polling? Some are suggesting that it’s to demoralize Republicans and make them think that Obama’s got it wrapped up and we shouldn’t even bother voting. I think it’s simpler than that. The Media isn’t in the business of selling news. The Media wants to sell your eyeballs.
There’s a rule of thumb, if something’s free, it’s not the product, you’re the product. The Media wants you to tune in and watch their TV station. They need as many eyeballs as possible on their show so that they can charge more for advertising. It’s that advertising that pays their salaries. What happens if you decide that Obama is going down in flames and there is no point in watching any election coverage? News ratings go down, advertising revenues go down, and the Media has to switch back to hyping Kardashian/Lohan/Snooki videos.
The Media wants you to tune in so they are manufacturing a horse race when everyone knows that the Obama horse broke a leg in the first furlong. Expect to hear all about how Romney is “pulling ahead” in the last two weeks of the election coverage. That’s them realigning their polls to reflect actual reality and not media reality.
The question is not “Is North Carolina in play?” The question is “Is Wisconsin in play?”
Sean’s prediction? Romney wins going away. I don’t think we’ll see numbers like Reagan-Carter, but that’s only because I can’t see California going Republican.
The victim is now 28 years old and has been here almost 20 years. She was paid very little and got no formal schooling. Sadly, I doubt that the NC justice system will chain both suspects to lawnmowers for 20 years as punishment, but that’s what should happen.
Hate crimes in general are quite rare in the US. There are over 300 million people in the US, and in the last 14 the total number of hate crimes has never exceeded 10,000. Of those, hate crimes motivated by the religion of the victim have never exceeded 20% of the total for the year.
Here’s a graph of total hate crimes vs. religiously motivated hate crimes.
Religiously motivated hate crimes compared to total hate crimes
You can see that as hate crimes go, religiously motivated hate crimes are not a large percentage of the total.
This is meaningless if all the religious hate crimes in the US are against Muslims, so let’s look at two main religious groups who suffer hate crimes.
There was that one spike in reported anti-Muslim hate crimes in 2001, but even then, the level has never even approached the levels of anti-Jewish hate crimes.
There are very few “Hate Crimes” in the US. Of that very small number, less than 20% are religiously motivated. Of that even tinier percentage, anti-Jewish hate crimes dominate the statistics. That tells me that, media hysteria aside, there is no reason to attack Americans as being generally hostile to Muslims.
I think he died of a broken heart. Not about the silly doping story, who really cares about that? I think that he should have been celebrating another year of the operation of Armstrong Moon Base by buying drinks for whichever astronaut had most recently returned from Mars.
Our space program is a disgrace. I can’t think of another person who is happier than me for not following his childhood dreams. I wanted to be an astronaut. I’d have done anything to get a ride in the Space Shuttle. But the more I’ve learned about how NASA douched up the space program (starting with the “reusable” Space Shuttle) the happier I am that I’m nowhere near that disgrace.
Farewell, Neil. I’m sorry we haven’t lived up to your example. It’s probably because we suck.