Now I’ve voted, some election predictions

I voted early today. Here’s a tip. If you run the Wake County Board of Elections, don’t put your office right in the middle of Raleigh. There is no parking. Try putting your office in a strip mall with a giant parking lot. Sure, most of the time it will be empty, but during elections the people will have some place to park.

Now that my voting is done, I’m going to make a few predictions.

  1. Romney wins by over 100 Electoral College votes
  2. Republicans take the US Senate, convincingly
  3. Republicans increase their lead in the US House
  4. McCrory will thump Dalton to win the Governorship of North Carolina. 10 point win for McCrory.
  5. Republicans will increase their lead in BOTH NC House and NC Senate

Now for my reasoning

  1. Romney was always ahead. The polls were biased. (seriously, RTWT) Looking at the current RCP Electoral College map, Romney is showing 206 to 201 for Obama with 131 votes up for grabs. North Carolina just moved into the “Leans Romney” camp. Duh. He barely won here in 2008. He’s going to get crushed here this year. I say Romney will win Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio. He’ll probably also win Michigan, and Iowa. I think there will be a lot of shocked Dems come the day after the election.
  2. The US Senate looks tougher, but I think that the people saying that Fauxcahantes is going to beat Brown are dreaming. I think that while Romney won’t have coattails, Obama has his anchor chain wrapped around the neck of his party. He’s going to take them down with him. I’m going to go with 52-48 Republican in the Senate. I’m hoping for better.
  3. What everyone is trying to ignore is that in 2010 the biggest Statehouse bloodbath in history took place. The very year that redistricting took place the Dems got slaughtered in Statehouses all over the country. Gerrymandering was reversed and now it’s not going to be possible for the Dems to help themselves. Plus Obama is going to drag them down even worse than they were going to lose on their own.
  4. This is a no-brainer. McCrory is going to wipe the floor with Dalton. Every poll shows him up in double digits.
  5. The same thing here as in #3. The Republicans took control of redistricting and did to the Dems what the Dems have done to the Republicans for 100 years. Payback’s a bitch. The Republicans didn’t play nice, and who could blame them?

There you have it. Now we have to wait until November 5th to see if I’m correct.

One response to “Now I’ve voted, some election predictions

  1. I think your instincts are spot on. After the reaction to Obama’s “You didn’t build that” comment I told friends and family that I thought Obama was toast. When he came out in support of gay marriage, the day after the passage of Amendment One I knew he was cooked in NC. His open support for the “assault weapons” ban won’t help and the Libya scandal just keeps getting worse. We can’t be overconfident, though. Still gotta turn out and seal the deal.